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Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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Saturday, 20 September 2014

Vard Holding analysis and market sense

Vard Holding

FA: P/E 12 - 14, close to fair value about 15, not so attractive. BVPS 0.65, fair, no discount. Dividend yield: nil

Conclusion - not attractive

TA: Using support/resistance analysis, First resistance 0.96, first support 0.88, second support 0.79.
Momentum analysis - going down.

Conclusion - fair to down

Analysts rating:
More hold than buy. Target price from 1.10 to 1.45
http://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/ptg/ms7.jsp
Conclusion - fair to negative

Sector sentiment:
I have heard about shipping sector and commodities sector are bottoming out since about 8 months ago. But relative to overall market indices, Singapore Shipping sector is still relatively under-performing.
Conclusion - stay defensive, can adopt wait and see approach

Market sentiment
From volume and price actions, overall market including western and Asia, sentiment point to cautious, and tend to stay defensive as market is worrying western especially US market which hovering at all time high prone to deep correction. Experts point to about 20 - 30% correction if panic situation worsen.
Positive view: Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect going to bring positive sentiment to both stock exchanges and may bring up sentiment to Singapore too.
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect
沪港通
Investors ready for Shanghai-Hong Kong stock link
The Impact of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Furthermore, SSE is still at low level compared to above 6000 all time high and HSI is having one of the lowest P/E in the world about 9 - 12 compared to US market about 17.
Conclusion - cautious optimist - betting on china related counters

CK Choy


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