by ckchoy
Stock trading is about probability, but
How to determine the probability in trading? It is only a rough guide:
The most popular tools are TA ( Technical analysis using charts ) - there are plenty of TA charts, just google.
1) TA may increase your probability to another 5%
2) watching market full time and have a feel of the market sense will increase your probability to another 5%
3) homework will increase your probability to another 7%
4) trading experience will increase your probability to another 10-20%
5) stick to discipline consistently will increase your probability to another 40%
So if trading with 1) to 5) together, will increase your probability to another 67-77%
It is common for beginner to lose money in trading because lack of experience. However, if a beginner is disciplined, using TA and doing homework, he will have a probability of 52% to make money consistently
Well, some may ask, if all the people can trade with 1) to 5), then wouldn't be all the people can succeed in trading? Yes sound easy. But easier say than done. How many people can consistently do these all the time? I won't say must do 1) to 5) consistently, as long as you can make up > 50%, it is good enough.
90% of the people will drop out some of the points, especially point 5), how many people can be so discipline all the time? Only robot can, because human have emotion.
Don't forget market is dynamic, traders need to consistently review the TA tools. Today's tool that let you make money doesn't guarantee it will do the same for tomorrow.
How many people can watch market full time? Only day traders/stock broker can.
How many will do homework consistently? Once a while will take for granted not to do homework and just place a trade.
And what is trading experience? You may have 20 years trading experience but those experience may not be applicable to today's market as market is dynamic.
Consistent, persistent -> easy? Perhaps only interest and passion can help.
How to determine the probability in trading? It is only a rough guide:
The most popular tools are TA ( Technical analysis using charts ) - there are plenty of TA charts, just google.
1) TA may increase your probability to another 5%
2) watching market full time and have a feel of the market sense will increase your probability to another 5%
3) homework will increase your probability to another 7%
4) trading experience will increase your probability to another 10-20%
5) stick to discipline consistently will increase your probability to another 40%
So if trading with 1) to 5) together, will increase your probability to another 67-77%
It is common for beginner to lose money in trading because lack of experience. However, if a beginner is disciplined, using TA and doing homework, he will have a probability of 52% to make money consistently
Well, some may ask, if all the people can trade with 1) to 5), then wouldn't be all the people can succeed in trading? Yes sound easy. But easier say than done. How many people can consistently do these all the time? I won't say must do 1) to 5) consistently, as long as you can make up > 50%, it is good enough.
90% of the people will drop out some of the points, especially point 5), how many people can be so discipline all the time? Only robot can, because human have emotion.
Don't forget market is dynamic, traders need to consistently review the TA tools. Today's tool that let you make money doesn't guarantee it will do the same for tomorrow.
How many people can watch market full time? Only day traders/stock broker can.
How many will do homework consistently? Once a while will take for granted not to do homework and just place a trade.
And what is trading experience? You may have 20 years trading experience but those experience may not be applicable to today's market as market is dynamic.
Consistent, persistent -> easy? Perhaps only interest and passion can help.
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